Press "Enter" to skip to content

Vol. 25, No. 4. Pp. 53–69

Adyghe Int. Sci. J. Vol. 25, No. 4. Pp. 53–69. 

Read article                                                                                                                     Contents of this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.47928/1726-9946-2025-25-4-53-69
EDN: JTTAQW

GEOPHYSICS

UDC 504.3.054 Original Article

Global and regional climate change:

causes and consequences

Tashilova Alla Amarbievna
doctor of physical and mathematical sciences, associate professor, Leading Researcher, Cloud Physics Department, High Mountain Geophysical Institute (360030, Russia, Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, Nalchik, Lenina str., 2), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2368-6047, tashilovaa@mail.ru

Abstract. This paper briefly addresses pressing issues of the modern world: climate change (global and regional), its causes, and potential consequences. The causes of climate change are presented for various time scales. Both the anthropogenic nature of modern climate change and the characteristics of climate change that do not fit into the theory of their anthropogenic origin are discussed. It is shown that climate change in the modern period is occurring increasingly intensively. The consequences of these changes worldwide, in Russia, and in the Caucasus region are listed. For the Caucasus region, the most pressing problem is changes in the water balance due to the degradation of Caucasus glaciers caused by current rates of warming, as shown, especially in the summer season. Forecasts from the IPCC Glacier Reports to 2100 under possible RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios are provided.

Keywords: climate, temperature, warming, greenhouse effect, anthropogenic, Caucasus region, glacier degradation, water balance.

Funding. This article was prepared using the results of research work on topic 3.2.3 “Monitoring and studying climate change in various climatic zones of the southern European Russian region, analysis of their consequences for the hydrometeorological regime, water and agroclimatic resources. Development of methods for reducing risks in various areas of activity related to climate change” of the Roshydromet Research and Technological Work Plan for 2025 (approved by Roshydromet Order No. 416 dated December 26, 2024).
Competing interests. There are no conflicts of interest regarding authorship and publication.
Contribution and Responsibility. The author participated in the writing of the article and is fully responsible for submitting the final version of the article to the press.

For citation. Tashilova A. A. Global and regional climate change: causes and consequences. Adyghe Int. Sci. J. 2025. Vol. 25, No. 4. Pp. 53–69. DOI: https://doi.org/10.47928/1726-9946-2025-25-4-53-69; EDN: JTTAQW

Submitted 28.10.2025; approved after reviewing 17.11.2025; accepted for publication 24.11.2025.

© Tashilova A. A., 2025

REFERENCES

1. IPCC: Climate Change: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / eds.: R. K. Pachauri, L. A. Meyer, et al. Geneva: IPCC, 2014. 163 p.
2. Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation of 17.12.2009 No. 861-rp // Official website of the President of the Russian Federation. URL: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/6365 (Accessed: 10.07.2025)
3. Glossary of Terms / IPCC — Special Report of IPCC Working Group III / eds.: B. Metz, O. R. Davidson, et al. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001. 466 p.
4. Westerhold T., et al. Evidence for astronomically forced climate variability over the past 66 million years. Science, 369(6509), 1383–1387 (2020).
5. Register of events on the Federation Council website. URL: http://council.gov.ru/activity/meetings/88088/agenda (Accessed: 10.07.2025)
6. Vakulenko N. V., Kotlyakov V. M., Parrenin F., Sonechkin D. M. A Study of Multiscale Relationships between Changes in Surface Air Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 Concentration // Ice and Snow. Moscow: Nauka. 2016. Vol. 56, No. 4. Pp. 533–542. (In Russian)
7. Kislov A. V. Climate in the Past, Present, and Future // Moscow: MAIK Nauka/Interperiodika, 2001. 351 p.
8. Milankovitch M. Mathematical Climatology and Astronomical Theory of Climate Oscillations / Moscow: GONTI-NKTP, 1939. 247 p.
9. Santer, B. D., et al. Celebrating the Anniversary of Three Key Events in Climate Change Science // Nature Climate Change. 2019. No. 9. Pp. 180–182.
10. Monin A. S., Shishkov Yu. A. History of Climate / Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1979. 407 p.
11. Anthropogenic Climate Change / Ed. by M. I. Budyko and Yu. A. Izrael. L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1987. 405 p.
12. Mokhov I. I., Demchenko P. F., Eliseev A. V., Khon V. Ch., Khvorostyanov D. V. Estimates of global and regional climate changes in the 19th–21st centuries based on the IAP RAS model, taking into account anthropogenic impacts // Izvestiya RAN. Physics of the Atmosphere and Ocean. 2002. Vol. 38, No. 5. Pp. 629–642. (In Russian)
13. Denisov S. N., Eliseev A. V., Mokhov I. I. Contribution of natural and anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 emissions into the atmosphere from the territory of Russia to global climate change in the 21st century // Reports of the Academy of Sciences. 2019. Vol. 488, No. 1. Pp. 74–80. (In Russian)
14. Kuricheva O. A., Avilov V. K., Varlagin A. V., Gitarsky M. L., Dmitrichenko A. A. et al. Monitoring of ecosystem fluxes of greenhouse gases in Russia: the RuFlux network // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Geographical Series. 2023. No. 87(4). Pp. 512–535. (In Russian)
15. Climate Change: Causes, Risks, Consequences, Adaptation and Regulation Challenges / Edited by Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences I. I. Mokhov, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences A. A. Makosko, Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences A. V. Chernokul’skii. Moscow: RAS, 2024. 360 p.
16. https://scientificrussia.ru/ (Accessed: 11.07.2025)
17. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / N.-O. Portner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegrfa, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022. 3056 p.
18. National Action Plan for the First Stage of Adaptation to Climate Change through 2022 // Consultant.ru. URL: https://document/cons_doc_LAW_342408/ (Accessed: 10.07.2025)
19. Wehner M. F., Arnold J. R., Knutson T., Kunkel K. E., Legrand A. N. (eds.) Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires (Report). In: Special Report on Climatology: Fourth National Climate Assessment. Vol. 1. Washington: U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017. Pp. 231–256. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7930/J0CJ8BNN (In Russian)
20. Gruza G. V., Rankova E. Ya., Rocheva E. V. Climatic Changes in Air Temperature in Russia Based on Instrumental Observations // Bulletin “Use and Protection of Natural Resources in Russia”. 2007. No. 3. Pp. 41–48. (In Russian)
21. Vakulenko N. V., Kotlyakov V. M., Sonechkin D. M. Is Climate Predictable on a Geological Time Scale? // Reports of the Academy of Sciences. Series “Physics of the Atmosphere and Ocean”. 2015. Vol. 460. Pp. 215. (In Russian)
22. Mokhov I. I. Russian Climate Research in 2011–2014 // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Series “Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics”. 2017. Vol. 53, No. 5. Pp. 624–640. (In Russian)
23. Gulev S. K., Kattsov V. M., Solomina O. N. Global Warming Continues. Science: MAIK “Science/Interperiodica”(Moscow). 2008. Vol. 78, No. 1. Pp. 20–27. (In Russian)
24. Kattsov V. M., Semenov S. M. Earth’s Climate: Drivers of Change and Causes of Concern // In the collection. Second Assessment Report of Roshydromet on Climate Change and Its Consequences in the Russian Federation. Moscow. 2014. Pp. 10–17.(In Russian)
25. Report on Climate Features in the Russian Federation for 2024. Moscow, 2025. 135 p.
26. Tashilova A. A., Ashabokov B. A., Kesheva L. A.,Teunova N. V. Analysis of Climate Change in the Caucasus Region: the End of the 20th – the Beginning of the 21st Century // CLIMATE. 2019. Vol. 7, No. 11. Pp. 1–15. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7010011
27. Fedchenko L. M., Tashilova A. A., Kesheva L. A., Teunova N. V. Changes in the main climatic indicators in the foothill zone of the North Caucasus for the period 1961–2022 // Geographical Bulletin. 2024. No. 1(68). Pp. 113–123. (In Russian)
28. Ashabokov B. A., Tashilova A. A., Kesheva L. A., Teunova N. V. Temperature dynamics in the European territory from 1500 to 2004 and analysis of their anomalies in the modern period // Science. Innovations. Technologies. 2025. No. 3. Pp. 123–148. (In Russian)
29. IPCC 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate / H.-O. P¨ortner, D. S. Roberts, W. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zay, M. Tignor, E. Polochanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N. M. Weier (ed.)
30. Bekkiev M. Yu., Dokukin M. D., Kalov R. Kh., Tashilova A. A. Current degradation of valley glaciers in the Central Caucasus // Fundamental and Applied Climatology. 2021. Vol. 8, No. 3. Pp. 113–141.
31. Kutuzov S., Lavrentiev I., Smirnov A., Nosenko G., Petrakov D. Volume Changes of Elbrus Glaciers From 1997 to 2017 // Frontiers in Earth Science. 2019. Vol. 7, Article 153.
32. Tashilova A. A., Kesheva L.A., Teunova N. V. Decrease in Regional Water Resources as a Result of Glacier Degradation in the North Caucasus Under the Impact of Climate Change. International Research Journal. 2023. No. 1(127). Pp. 1–5. (In Russian)

Лицензия Creative Commons
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

©​ | 2022 | Адыгская (Черкесская) Международная академия наук